Which brings us to Iran. David Brooks has written a good piece in the NYT today about the US response to the situation in Iran. Money quote:
Foreign policy experts are trained in the art of analysis, extrapolation and linear thinking. They simply have no tools to analyze moments that are non-linear, paradigm-shifting and involve radical shifts in consciousness. As a result, they almost invariably underestimate how rapid change might be and how quickly it might come. As Michael McFaul, a democracy expert who serves on the National Security Council, once wrote: “In retrospect, all revolutions seem inevitable. Beforehand, all revolutions seem impossible.”
Worth thinking about as you listen to the "experts" talk about how we need to be "pragmatic" and "realistic" about what is happening. While it is true that we should never get ahead of the protesters and the Iranian people, we most certainly need to make it clear to everyone that we are supporting them in their aspirations. Moreover, as my former colleagues pointed out in the Wall Street Journal a few days back, there continues to be broad plain between the carefully worded statements coming from the Administration and the outer limits of appropriate support for these brave men and women. While I hope that my former colleagues at the State Department are getting this right and doing the needful, my painful experience with them causes me to have grave doubts. I had a ring-side seat on our failure to do everything we could to support Burma's democracy movement during the Saffron Revolution in 2007, a case where our public rhetoric far outpaced our private actions. Again, I am hoping that the reverse is happening this time - the cautious remarks are masking a vigorous effort to figure out what needs to be done and do it - but the institutional bureaucratic barriers to this are high and the forces of the status quo are particularly tenacious among the Arabists who populate the professional ranks of the United States foreign policy community. Sphere: Related Content
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